[칼럼] Korea Story 14 - Foreign Affairs and National Security 6 by Atty Jeong-kee Kim

(Newskorea=Seoul) Digital News Team =Korea Story 14 - <Foreign Affairs and National Security 6   by Atty Jeong-kee Kim>

● The U.S.’s Asian NATO Alignment: What Choices Does South Korea Face?

Like Europe's NATO, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an Asian version of a multilateral security organization has been launched. In the future, the existing QUAD, a four-way security consultative body consisting of India, Australia, Japan, and the United States, will be expanded to Quad Plus by adding Korea, Vietnam, and New Zealand, and may be expanded to establish an Indo-Pacific collective security system that blocks China.  While Trump was proactive in this regard, Biden has taken a more cautious approach.

NATO members in Europe shared many similarities, including the common threat of the Soviet Union, which was a superpower armed with communist ideology. They also shared values such as democracy, market economies, Christianity, and a legacy of the Roman Empire. In contrast, members of an Asian NATO would have many differences. China is not a superpower as a communist suzerain like the Soviet Union. While these nations including China pursue market economies, their political systems and religions vary, and they lack the unity seen in historical empires. For example, India and Japan are competing regional powers with China in South and East Asia, Australia and New Zealand are Anglo-Saxon nations similar to the U.S., and South Korea and Vietnam are countries seeking independence from the historical Chinese-centered order. This makes cooperation among these nations quite complex. Nevertheless, the United States, based on its strong power, is maximizing military tension with China by tying these countries together to create an anti-China collective security system. In particular, the position of Korea, which is highly dependent on the huge Chinese market, is difficult. It is fortunate that discussions on Quad Plus have slowed down recently.

Why is the U.S. pursuing this approach? If China achieves its dream of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse by 2025 and progresses to become a leading scientific and technological power from 2026 to 2050, it is predictable that by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC), it will become a military power rivaling the United States based on its formidable scientific and technological capabilities. In other words, a new era will be opened based on the bipolar system between the United States and China, just as Rome, which previously ruled Europe and the Near East, and Han Dynasty, which ruled Asia, formed an empire and coexisted as regional powers. So, just as the United States dragged the Soviet Union into the arms race during the Cold War and eventually dismantled the Soviet Empire, it is trying to break up the Chinese empire by dragging China into an arms race over the next 30 years. In other words, just as the Soviet Union was disbanded, leaving only Russia, and the rest became independent into more than 10 countries, China is disbanded, leaving China that governs only the Central Plains, and Tibet, Xinjiang Uyghur, Inner Mongolia, and, if possible, Manchuria are also made independent. By doing this, the United States, as the world's only superpower, seeks to maintain the U.S.-centered world order, or Pax Americana, under a unipolar system. 

The problem is that such U.S. global pressure complicates South Korea’s position. South Korea has maintained a policy of balancing security with the U.S. and economic relations with China. However, with the U.S. pursuing blatant alignment, South Korea will face a situation where it must make a choice. What should be done? The answer might lie in reflecting simply and modestly on how South Korea was born and developed to its present state.

The victorious U.S. in World War II liberated colonial Korea from Japanese rule and, after a three-year U.S. military administration, helped establish the Republic of Korea. In other words, the U.S. has played a parental role for Korea.

Not only that, but the U.S. also transplanted liberal democracy and market economy to this land. When the Korean War broke out, the U.S. formed the United Nations Command, and tens of thousands of American soldiers fought and bled. Even in the devastation of the war, the U.S. kept South Korea fed in the 1950s under the name of economic aid, and effectively sustained the country. During the industrialization process of the 1960s and 1970s, the U.S. was a reliable partner, and helped write the success story of the development economy era through generous investments and technology transfers. In the 1980s, when the U.S. waged a financial and technological war against Japan and severely impacted the Japanese economy, South Korea secured space for growth, which in turn provided an opportunity to leap from a manufacturing powerhouse to a technology powerhouse. Building on this, South Korea participated as a key player in the U.S.-led Third Industrial Revolution of the 1990s and became an advanced country in the era of information and communication technology.

In the 2020s, the U.S. continues to play the role of an ally for South Korea. Just as the U.S. delayed Japan’s technological development in the 1980s, and made South Korea a leading country in the Third Industrial Revolution, in the 2020s, the U.S. is delaying China’s technological development, and making South Korea a leading country in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. For instance, the U.S. took direct action against China's global company Huawei to prevent China’s manufacturing rise, which is highly beneficial for its competitor, South Korea. Let’s assume China completes its manufacturing rise by 2025, or at the latest by 2035. Will South Korea have any advanced technology to sell to China? Even now, excluding semiconductors, South Korea faces immense challenges in traditional industries such as steel, shipbuilding, automotive, petrochemicals, and home appliances. In major sectors of the Fourth Industrial Revolution like artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, and the sharing economy, China is actually leading the way.

In this way, Korea is intertwined with the United States like a spider's web not only in terms of military and security, but also in all areas of politics, economy, and society. In other words, Korea and the United States are not only allies and military and security allies, but they also believe in democracy, practice a market economy, and are like a huge community that shares social values, so they cannot be considered separately. Then, the answer becomes clear. All you have to do is go naturally as your body and mind are accustomed to. If South Korea becomes a member of the Asian collective security system following the ROK-US alliance, its military and security will become even more impregnable. No country, including North Korea, will be able to do anything rashly. It means making a bold choice.  If Korea chooses neutrality out of fear of China's economic retaliation and become a gray element, it will eventually fall into an international limbo. 

Hasn’t South Korean diplomacy faced retaliation from China over THAAD due to its ambiguity? To receive at least minimal respect from China, which is immersed in Sinocentrism, it would be better to align with the strong supporter, the U.S., the world’s greatest power. Has Japan, an East Asian ally of the U.S., ever been neglected or faced economic retaliation from China just because it is aligned with the U.S.? The same applies to India. In fact, doesn't China also have North Korea, which is its blood ally in terms of military and security? Isn't the Korean Peninsula important to China because, as a continental country, it serves as a buffer zone where China can prevent threats from maritime countries? Currently, North Korea is faithfully fulfilling its role. It is too excessive to threaten South Korea with economic weapons to force it to line up in terms of military and security, or to demand that it remain neutral without lining up with the United States. At the very least, Korea, a member of the ROK-US alliance system, should be tolerated to stand in line with the US in terms of military and security. This is the same as the United States tolerating North Korea lining up with China in terms of military and security.  This is the minimum standard of international politics. 

Even from the perspective of prioritizing national interests, aligning with the U.S. is natural. This is because the U.S. is the world’s only superpower and is likely to remain so for the next 100 years. Politically, the U.S. is a model democratic country where the rule of law prevails. Economically, it led the Second Industrial Revolution, opened the Third Industrial Revolution era, and now leads the Fourth Industrial Revolution, nearly monopolizing global intellectual property and printing the world’s reserve currency, the dollar, thus dominating global finance. Militarily, it is a center of cutting-edge weapon production, unparalleled in its readiness for space warfare. Culturally, American pop music, movies, Starbucks, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Polo, and skyscrapers have become global standards. Who would choose to align with China, which, despite its rise as a new great power, does not guarantee dominance in the ongoing hegemonic struggle over the U.S.? Particularly, joining a military-security community is directly linked to the survival of a nation and its people. The time to choose is now. In terms of military security, South Korea should be part of the ROK-U.S. alliance and the Asian collective security system, and in economic terms, it should rush to any market available. Although the former might cause short-term impacts on the latter, time will ultimately resolve it. As long as our global companies possess advanced technologies and high-tech products needed by China, markets will remain open.

☆ Author:  Atty Jeong-kee Kim ☆

● Education
- Bachelor of Arts in Political Science, Summa Cum Laude, State University of New York at Stony Brook
-  Doctor of Jurisprudence, Marquette University Law School
- Senior Executive Program, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
- Research Scholar in North Korean Studies, Peking University

● Experience
- Consul General of the Republic of Korea in Shanghai
- Commissioner General for the Korean Pavilion at the 2010 Shanghai Expo
- CEO, Asia-Pacific Local Government Network for Economic and Social Development (CityNet)
- Secretary General, World Smart Sustainable Cities Organization(WeGO)
- Law Clerk, Milwaukee Circuit Court, USA
- Senior Attorney-at-Law, Dr & Aju LLC
- Distinguished Visiting Professor, World Economy Research Institute, Nanjing University
- Research Professor, Institute of Oriental Studies, Peking University
- Distinguished Professor, Graduate School of Political Science, Kookmin University
- Chair Professor, Graduate School of Business, Dongguk University
- First President of Soongsil Cyber University

● Publications
- Georo English Studies Series for College Students [10 volumes] (Georo Publishing)
- I Challenge the Possibility of One Percent (Chosun Ilbo)
- The Art of Negotiation (Cheongnyonneongsin Publishing)
- Korea and the World (Chekmidum Publishing)