편집자 주     본지에서는 전세계 외국인 독자들을 대상으로 한국의 역사와 문화를 정확하게 소개하기 위해 김정기 변호사의 칼럼을 영문판으로 연재를 시작합니다.

한국의 역사와 문화에 관심있는 전 세계인들에게 도움이 되길 바랍니다.

한국어 독자들은 한국어로 번역된 화면이 보이므로 반드시 사이트 상단에서 원문보기로 설정하셔야 영문판으로 보실수 있습니다.
 

 

 

☆김정기 총장 주요 약력☆
 

 

● 학력
- 뉴욕주립대학교(StonyBrook) 정치학과 수석졸업
- 마케트대학교(Marquette) 로스쿨 법학박사
- 하버드대학교(Harvard) 케네디스쿨 최고위과정
- 베이징대학교(Peking) 북한학 연구학자

 
● 경력
- 제8대 주상하이 대한민국 총영사(13등급 대사)
- 2010 상하이엑스포 대한민국관 정부대표
- 아시아태평양지방정부네트워크(CityNet) 사무국 대표
- 세계스마트시티기구(WeGO) 사무국 사무총장
- 밀워키지방법원 재판연구원 
- 법무법인 대륙아주 중국 총괄 미국변호사
- 난징대학교 국제경제연구소 객좌교수
- 베이징대학교 동방학연구원 연구교수
- 국민대학교 정치대학원 특임교수
- 동국대학교 경영전문대학원 석좌교수
- 숭실사이버대학교 초대 총장

 
● 저서
- 대학생을 위한 거로영어연구[전10권](거로출판사)
- 나는 1%의 가능성에 도전한다(조선일보사)
- 한국형 협상의 법칙(청년정신사)
- 대한민국과 세계 이야기(도서출판 책미듬)

(NewsKorea=Seoul) Digital News Team = Korea Story 40 - <Politics and Election 4 by Atty Jeong-kee  Kim> 

● A strategy for the conservative party to regain power in 2022 *authored on October 9, 2020.

In a democratic country, the legitimacy and authority of an elected president are secured through the 'sacred' process of elections. Elections provide the solid foundation that underpins democratic states. Although Korea has experienced politically bleak periods under dictatorship, the transition of power through democratic procedures was achieved with the advent of civilian regimes. However, former Democratic Party leader Lee Hae-chan openly advocated a 20-year long-term governance theory. Of course, in the United States, the Democratic Party did govern continuously for 20 years from 1933 with Roosevelt to 1952 with Truman under exceptional circumstances like the Great Depression and world wars. Where does Lee Hae-chan's confidence come from? Essentially, it might stem from his inflated dreams of building a socialist republic, but more visibly, it could be attributed to the consecutive victories in the 2017 presidential election, 2018 local elections, and the 2020 general elections. The conservative party's catastrophic defeat was partly due to the unprecedented impeachment of Park Geun-hye, which led voters to turn away from the traditional conservative parties. However, the key factor was the political and social changes that began in the elections from 2017. If the People Power Party responds to these new changes by achieving disruptive innovation for expanding its appeal to the center and identifies candidates who present a vision, it could analyze and focus on the structure and issues crucial for voter decisions, including variables, to strategically target them. This approach might enable conservatives to win and reascend to power.

First, People Power Party should declare itself as a center-right party in its ideological stance and play a central role in discovering a presidential candidate who presents a vision.

Above all, People Power Party should respond to voter demands by embracing creative destruction to the extent that new changes are palpably felt. This means moving away from the traditional conservative and progressive dichotomy and expanding to include centrism. Recently, People Power Party included 'unlike past conservative parties, leading innovation and reform for national integration without excluding anyone' in its party platform and reflected key policy principles such as 'opportunity and fairness, leading future change, respect for labor, economic independence, going together with the socially vulnerable, and diplomacy and security aiming for peaceful reunification' in its core policies. This signaled People  Power  Party rebirth as a center-right party to the world. If it implements its platform and policy principles without wavering, voters' perceptions of the party will change, transforming this into a macro election victory strategy.

Next, it is essential to discover a presidential candidate who aligns with the changing election landscape. The presidential candidate must present a vision that represents the spirit of the times. What is the spirit of the times in the 2022 presidential election? Obviously, it is the economy. Solving economic issues does not simply mean bringing in economists, economic bureaucrats, or CEOs of large corporations. It means calling on capable leaders with practical experience in managing the economy, such as governors of large regions like the Seoul Mayor or Gyeonggi Province Governor. Just as Bill Clinton, who won re-election in the 1996 U.S. presidential election, began as a lawyer and served as the Governor of Arkansas, a regional leader, the public might expect a messiah who can overcome the dire economic realities that emerge as the fog of COVID-19 lifts. Thus, they would hope for a messiah who can solve the economic crisis in one go. In addition to economic competence as the spirit of the times, the presidential candidate should be able to unify the people divided by Moon Jae-in, handle international politics adeptly amid the geopolitical constraints of the Korean Peninsula, and establish peace on the Korean Peninsula while ultimately bringing about reunification. People Power Party must earnestly seek potential leaders who fit the spirit of the times and create a competition among this group and existing internal potentials to produce a 'hero,' using methods like the Trott (a type of competitive format) to showcase them.

Second, the presidential candidate should develop a strategy that fits the changed election landscape. Two critical elements that determine election outcomes are the structure and issues, although variables may occasionally arise.

Let’s examine the structure first.

There is a regional structure aspect. Although unlikely, if Lee Nak-yon from Honam region becomes the Democratic Party candidate in the 2022 election, the People Power Party candidate could have a significant chance of winning based on regional dynamics. Except for Kim Dae-jung, who succeeded in power with the DJP alliance, no Democratic Party candidate from Honam region has ever been elected president. Even considering the number of voters or the combined populations of Gwangju, Jeonnam, and Jeonbuk, they do not reach half of TK (Daegu and North Gyeongsang) and B-Ul-Gyeong (Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam), and including Honam residents in major cities nationwide like the capital region, Chungcheong, and Yeongnam, they make up only about 30% of all voters, presenting a fundamental limitation for winning solely on that basis. For example, in the 2007 election, Jeong Dong-young from Honam regio ran as the Democratic Party candidate but performed poorly, securing only 26.14% of the vote, and even combining it with 15.04% from independent candidate Lee Hoi-chang from Chungcheong, the total was only 41.18%, far below Lee Myung-bak's 48.67%. Although Roh Moo-hyun's plummeting approval ratings as a symbol of ineffective leadership might have played a role, the situation is different now. Unlike Roh Moo-hyun, Moon Jae-in maintains a solid 41% support without lame duck status, and unlike Jeong Dong-young, Lee Nak-yon benefits from the Honam grand ambition. Additionally, unlike the past Democratic Party, the current party has a solid foundation established in the B-Ul-Gyeong region from the last local elections and enthusiastic support from the 600,000 Moon Jae-in staunch supporters nationwide.

There is also a generational structure aspect.
The 20s make up 15.5% of the voter base. They value freedom and independent thinking. Indicators suggest a strengthened conservative affinity, though this differs somewhat from People Power Party ’s orientation. They tend to make rational choices based on pledges and policies, though there are survey results indicating decisions based on candidates and issues. Nevertheless, one unchanging fact is that people in their 20s choose parties and candidates who look out for their interests. Therefore, presenting youth-friendly pledges and policies can turn them into a supportive group. For instance, promises such as half-price tuition and support for youth job-seeking and entrepreneurship could become a winning strategy. In their 30s and 40s, which make up 15.9% and 19% of the voter base respectively, people value fairness and are angry about inequality. They are ideologically progressive and are so firmly entrenched that there is little room for conservatives. This is partly due to the influence of the Korean Teachers and Education Workers’ Union during their formative years. Thus, targeting them strategically offers limited benefit. However, this does not mean abandoning 34.9% of the voters. The 50s, who make up 19.7% of the voter base, are part of the so-called 586 generation, key figures of the 1987 system, and thus lean more towards progressivism. They have experienced poverty, democratization movements, and leaders like Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun. As a generational community, they share social emotions. Typically, political orientations become more conservative in their 50s, but many 586 generation individuals maintain progressive values even as 586 generation members. This trend is linked to the de-conservatization that started in 2017. Nonetheless, focusing on the 50s as part of a winning strategy could yield results. The 50s are less fixed in their partisanship and are more likely to respond to tailored policies and pledges, potentially swaying their votes. By developing customized policies and implementing pledges, it is possible to capture these votes, potentially flipping the ratio from 4:6 (progressive to conservative) to 6:4, which could be decisive in winning the 2020 election. The 60s and 70s, making up 14.6% and 12.7% of the voter base respectively, traditionally represent the conservative base. However, these 27.3% of voters cannot be taken for granted as they may easily be influenced by the welfare policies of the Moon Jae-in administration. The culture of exchanging even a pair of shoes for votes has long been entrenched in Korea.

Let’s examine the issues next.

Indeed, leading and seizing the initiative on issues is crucial. Historically, issues such as security and economic problems have been central in elections, with social welfare becoming more prominent recently. Power-related scandals can also emerge. It is necessary to identify and aggressively address issues that could become focal points as the election approaches. As the opposition party, there are many angles to approach from the perspective of holding the administration accountable. Issues could range from presidential aides’ corruption, misconduct by Democratic Party members, failures in real estate policies, unfairness in exams or employment, basic income schemes, to North Korean nuclear issues, inter-Korean economic cooperation, and survival strategies amid the US-China conflict. How issues are framed and presented is also important, and it may sometimes be necessary to create battlefronts.

Let’s consider the variables finally.

Variables can suddenly come to the forefront, so handling them effectively is essential. This also tests crisis response capabilities. Currently, with the impending worst economic situation in the post-COVID era. After the outbreak of COVID-19, many countries have already injected over $8 trillion, equivalent to about 10% of the global GDP, in emergency funds. Consequently, if the majority of countries face IMF-imposed severe restructuring, the global suffering will be dire. Preparations for such scenarios need to be made in advance. Benchmarking against Franklin D. Roosevelt, who overcame the Great Depression with exceptional leadership, might be a strategy to consider.

In conclusion, the 2022 presidential election will be challenging. However, if the COVID-19 fog clears and the worst economic conditions arise, the desire for regime change driven by the need for accountability will surge. If a candidate who aligns with the spirit of the times—economy—can be identified, a well-devised strategy on structure, issues, and variables could provide a significant chance of victory.

☆ Author:  Atty Jeong-kee Kim ☆

● Education
- Bachelor of Arts in Political Science, Summa Cum Laude, State University of New York at Stony Brook
-  Doctor of Jurisprudence, Marquette University Law School
- Senior Executive Program, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
- Research Scholar in North Korean Studies, Peking University

● Experience
- Consul General of the Republic of Korea in Shanghai
- Commissioner General for the Korean Pavilion at the 2010 Shanghai Expo
- CEO, Asia-Pacific Local Government Network for Economic and Social Development (CityNet)
- Secretary General, World Smart Sustainable Cities Organization(WeGO)
- Law Clerk, Milwaukee Circuit Court, USA
- Senior Attorney-at-Law, Dr & Aju LLC
- Distinguished Visiting Professor, World Economy Research Institute, Nanjing University
- Research Professor, Institute of Oriental Studies, Peking University
- Distinguished Professor, Graduate School of Political Science, Kookmin University
- Chair Professor, Graduate School of Business, Dongguk University
- First President of Soongsil Cyber University

● Publications
- Georo English Studies Series for College Students [10 volumes] (Georo Publishing)
- I Challenge the Possibility of One Percent (Chosun Ilbo)
- The Art of Negotiation (Cheongnyonneongsin Publishing)
- Korea and the World (Chekmidum Publishing)