편집자 주     본지에서는 전세계 외국인 독자들을 대상으로 한국의 역사와 문화를 정확하게 소개하기 위해 김정기 변호사의 칼럼을 영문판으로 연재를 시작합니다.

한국의 역사와 문화에 관심있는 전 세계인들에게 도움이 되길 바랍니다.

한국어 독자들은 한국어로 번역된 화면이 보이므로 반드시 사이트 상단에서 원문보기로 설정하셔야 영문판으로 보실수 있습니다.
 

 

☆김정기 총장 주요 약력☆

 

● 학력
- 뉴욕주립대학교(StonyBrook) 정치학과 수석졸업
- 마케트대학교(Marquette) 로스쿨 법학박사
- 하버드대학교(Harvard) 케네디스쿨 최고위과정
- 베이징대학교(Peking) 북한학 연구학자

 
● 경력
- 제8대 주상하이 대한민국 총영사(13등급 대사)
- 2010 상하이엑스포 대한민국관 정부대표
- 아시아태평양지방정부네트워크(CityNet) 사무국 대표
- 세계스마트시티기구(WeGO) 사무국 사무총장
- 밀워키지방법원 재판연구원 
- 법무법인 대륙아주 중국 총괄 미국변호사
- 난징대학교 국제경제연구소 객좌교수
- 베이징대학교 동방학연구원 연구교수
- 국민대학교 정치대학원 특임교수
- 동국대학교 경영전문대학원 석좌교수
- 숭실사이버대학교 초대 총장

 
● 저서
- 대학생을 위한 거로영어연구[전10권](거로출판사)
- 나는 1%의 가능성에 도전한다(조선일보사)
- 한국형 협상의 법칙(청년정신사)
- 대한민국과 세계 이야기(도서출판 책미듬)

(NewsKorea=Seoul) Digital News Team = World Story 3 - <Vision 3  by Atty Jeong-kee Kim>

● China’s future seen through the United States

In the 21st century, the world is changing at an uncontrollably rapid pace. The global axis is shifting daily. As the world's most powerful nation, the United States became the overwhelmingly dominant global order in politics, economics, military, and culture after winning the Cold War against the Soviet Union.

However, the world is no longer dominated solely by the United States. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the unipolar world led by the U.S. has been rapidly restructured into a bipolar system, particularly in the economic order, following the 2008 financial crisis. China, with its 1.4 billion population and rapid economic growth since the reform and opening-up, is now challenging global hegemony and taking over the role of the Soviet Union in challenging the Western world. So, what does the future hold for China?

By examining the history of America's growth, we can reasonably infer China’s future due to the fundamental similarities in their trajectories.

<Birth of the empire, territorial expansion, division and civil war--
USA 1776~1865/China 1911~1949>
 
After winning the War of Independence in 1776 and achieving independence from Britain, the United States expanded its territory over the next 100 years, leading up to the outbreak of the Civil War in 1861. Starting with the 13 original colonies on the East Coast, the U.S. initiated its "Midwestern Expansion  Era" by purchasing French Louisiana encompassing the entire central region of the current U.S. from France in 1803, during Napoleon's European wars. Victory in the Mexican-American War (1846–48) brought California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada into the union, marking the beginning of the "Westward Expansion Era." From 1861 to 1865, the country was divided during the Civil War, with the North and South split. The Southern Confederacy, led by Jefferson Davis, was recognized as a separate nation by some European countries and maintained its independence for five years, resulting in a period of division at least during the war. Abraham Lincoln is revered above even the founding father, George Washington, for leading the war to victory and reuniting the nation.

China under the Kuomintang ended the feudal era and established a republic with Sun Yat-sen's Xinhai Revolution in 1911. After the first United Front between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party collapsed from 1924 to 1927, the Kuomintang expanded its influence northward during the Northern Expedition in 1928. The country was divided between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party, waging a civil war from 1928–1937 and again from 1947–1949, except during the second United Front period from 1937–1945. While the Kuomintang initially had the upper hand, leading the united front, corruption within its leadership ultimately led to the Communist Party taking control of the mainland, forcing the Kuomintang to retreat to Taiwan.

<Unification and Industrialization--USA 1866~1913/China 1949~2020>
   
After the Civil War ended in 1865, the United States accelerated its industrialization, completing it by the late 1800s, particularly after its victory in the war against Spain. The period from 1901 to 1913 was a time of preparation for the country's emergence onto the world stage.

After establishing the People's Republic of China in 1949, China pursued industrialization, despite a temporary interruption due to the Cultural Revolution, through reform and opening-up policies from 1978 to the late 1990s. By joining the WTO in 2001, China gained significant trust from the West, leading to large-scale real investments in a short period. It is expected that China will continue to maintain its growth rate until 2025 and solidify its foundation as a manufacturing powerhouse.

<The Emergence on the Global Stage–USA 1914-1945 / China 2021–2050>

The United States, leveraging its formidable economic power, emerged onto the global stage by leading and winning both World War I and World War II. However, the global order at the time was not dominated by a single nation; it was a multipolar era where the G5 powers maintained a balance of power, with the United States playing a key role as one of these powers.

During the two world wars, from 1914–18 and 1941–45, the U.S. established itself as a major global force, with its manufacturing sector booming and accounting for 30% of the world's GDP. The U.S. was on the verge of taking over global financial hegemony, which was solidified when the United Kingdom abandoned the gold standard. Before World War I, the global order was centered around Britain, with the pound sterling as the world’s leading currency. However, Britain's economic strength was significantly weakened by the two world wars.

In this context, the U.S. easily seized global financial dominance, establishing the U.S. dollar as the new reserve currency and creating the Bretton Woods System in 1944. The Bretton Woods System was a global economic framework developed at a retreat in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, based on fixed exchange rates. By pegging global currencies to the U.S. dollar, it aimed to stabilize international exchange rates and minimize trade volatility, thereby fostering stable global economic growth.

As a result, the Bretton Woods System allowed the United States to fully control global financial power, symbolizing the era of "Pax Americana." Moreover, for nearly 30 years, until President Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971, the global economy entered a period of stability and enjoyed its greatest prosperity.

However, during the protracted Vietnam War, the United States faced growing trade deficits and budget deficits, leading to the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971 and the adoption of a floating exchange rate system. Additionally, by the 1980s, the U.S. had even relinquished its status as the world's leading manufacturing power to the emerging industrial giant, Japan.

In 1985, the U.S. sought to stabilize the dollar through the "Plaza Accord," which resulted in the appreciation of the Japanese yen. However, the international financial markets, still centered on the dollar, remained volatile, leading to the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Ironically, the dollar grew even stronger after the 2008 financial turmoil, as it became increasingly recognized that the U.S. dollar was the only truly reliable currency.

From 2021 to 2050, China is expected to leverage its status as a manufacturing powerhouse to become a major player in finance, technology, and military industries. China is likely to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar as the sole reserve currency, become a key player in the global investment bank market, and secure substantial dividend income through large-scale investments in multinational corporations. Moreover, by holding intellectual property in advanced technology sectors, China could earn significant royalties, while also profiting immensely from arms exports. Ultimately, assuming a 5% economic growth rate for China and a 3% rate for the U.S., by 2035, China's total GDP could match that of the United States.

<The Advent of a Bipolar System—USA 1946–1991 / China 2051–2099>
 
From 1946 to 1991, during the Cold War era, the world was polarized between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, with the U.S. holding around 40% of the global GDP and securing overwhelming military superiority through nuclear power, leading the Western bloc. In 1991, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the U.S. entered a unipolar era of dominance known as "Pax Americana." The U.S. successfully engaged the Soviet Union in an arms race during the 1980s, known as the "Star Wars" initiative, ultimately causing the collapse of the fragile socialist planned economy. The U.S. could sustain this arms race due to its strong economic foundation and technological superiority in the defense industry, which allowed it to confidently lead the new "Information Technology Age" following the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, replacing the previous industrial age.

From 2050 to 2099, China will inevitably face an era of confrontation and conflict. Internationally, this period will be marked by military clashes, while domestically, China will encounter significant political and social challenges. As China becomes an economic superpower, trade disputes will become more frequent, and in the worst-case scenario, military conflict might become unavoidable to protect national interests. Currently, the U.S. dominates global military order, with a defense budget exceeding $850 billion, far outstripping the combined defense budgets of major nations, including China's $220 billion. If conflict with the U.S. becomes a reality, China will need to focus even more on strengthening its competitiveness in the defense industry.
 
By around 2050, assuming China maintains an average annual economic growth rate of 5%, it is expected to achieve a per capita GDP exceeding $30,000. As the Chinese population becomes more economically affluent, there will be a growing desire for democracy and political and social reforms. The U.S., as a democratic nation, prioritizes the rule of law, which ensures principles, rationality, predictability, and transparency in governance and appointments. Through the separation of powers in legislation, judiciary, and administration, and the system of checks and balances, the U.S. can eliminate corruption and maintain national prosperity. In contrast, China, as a socialist nation, prioritizes rule by people, where power is concentrated in a small privileged elite, making it difficult to ensure government transparency, potentially leading to widespread corruption. China will need to find ways to overcome these limitations and also reform its traditional feudal mentality. While a top-down, centralized control system may offer efficiency during the development and growth stages, it will not suffice for achieving advanced status.

If China successfully overcomes military conflicts and political and social challenges after realizing its dream of becoming an economic superpower, it may enter an era of "Pax Sinica" around 2100. This would parallel the period from 1992 to the present when the U.S. formed a unipolar system after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, marking the era of "Pax Americana."

"Zhonghua" (中华) means the center of the world. Throughout its long history, China has taken pride in being the center of the world and has aspired to be the ruler of the central plains. This deep-rooted historical tradition and sense of superiority are ingrained in their DNA. Ultimately, they will seek to dominate and become the center of the world, and they certainly have the potential to do so. However, to leap from being a manufacturing powerhouse to becoming a financial, technological, and military superpower—basic conditions for a superpower—they will need to endure many trials and accumulate much more experience.

Yet, China has indeed made tremendous progress. It has astonishingly emerged from a 200-year quagmire that seemed inescapable, demonstrating an incredible tenacity that made the nearly impossible possible. Moreover, the essence of the changes China is experiencing now lies in the fact that "no one expected it." It will continue to be difficult to predict the future changes in China. When Sun Yat-sen was traveling in the U.S. and Europe to raise funds for his revolution, he encountered Bolsheviks from the Soviet Union. They consoled him by saying, "China might establish a republic within a hundred years." Yet, only a few years later, the Xinhai Revolution occurred. Even the Bolsheviks, who were the most radical forces at the time, could not foresee China's changes. This unpredictability has a deep historical tradition in China.
 
China's changes stem from this unpredictability, which is also the essence of the shock it delivers to the world. Given the difficulty of predicting what will happen in China, it is essential to watch China closely to be prepared for potential turmoil.

In this sense, China will never cease its determined efforts to challenge the U.S. and become a superpower and the center of the world. However, whether they will need far more time than they expect to achieve their goals, or if it will happen sooner than anticipated, remains equally unpredictable. This unpredictability may define China's status as one of the world's two superpowers.

☆ Author:  Atty Jeong-kee Kim ☆

● Education
- Bachelor of Arts in Political Science, Summa Cum Laude, State University of New York at Stony Brook
-  Doctor of Jurisprudence, Marquette University Law School
- Senior Executive Program, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
- Research Scholar in North Korean Studies, Peking University

● Experience
- Consul General of the Republic of Korea in Shanghai
- Commissioner General for the Korean Pavilion at the 2010 Shanghai Expo
- CEO, Asia-Pacific Local Government Network for Economic and Social Development (CityNet)
- Secretary General, World Smart Sustainable Cities Organization(WeGO)
- Law Clerk, Milwaukee Circuit Court, USA
- Senior Attorney-at-Law, Dr & Aju LLC
- Distinguished Visiting Professor, World Economy Research Institute, Nanjing University
- Research Professor, Institute of Oriental Studies, Peking University
- Distinguished Professor, Graduate School of Political Science, Kookmin University
- Chair Professor, Graduate School of Business, Dongguk University
- First President of Soongsil Cyber University

● Publications
- Georo English Studies Series for College Students [10 volumes] (Georo Publishing)
- I Challenge the Possibility of One Percent (Chosun Ilbo)
- The Art of Negotiation (Cheongnyonneongsin Publishing)
- Korea and the World (Chekmidum Publishing)